Return of injured players will boost Real Madrid for run-in

There has been an undercurrent to Carlo Ancelotti's press conferences of late. Not the weekly game-by-game mantra preached by Atletico Madrid manager Diego Simeone, but a message inserted in the Italian's dialogue often enough for it to gather momentum: "This league will be decided on the last day." 

That Real have lost some of their own momentum is undeniable. One point from a possible six in the space of a week is not ideal, but Ancelotti's team still sit one point behind leaders Barcelona with 12 games to go. The two challengers meet for round two of their personal bout at the Camp Nou in two weeks' time and Real hold a 3-1 advantage over the eternal enemy from the return. La Liga, in the case of a points tie, is decided on head-to-head results: Barca will have to better that scoreline to earn a potentially decisive 'extra' point. 

After the second clasico of the season, Real have a number of what should, on paper at least, be straightforward games: Granada (h), Rayo (a), Eibar (h), Malaga (h), Celta (a), Almeria (h). Famine follows feast, as the saying goes, and vice versa. Any fans readying an "Ancelotti out" banner to unfurl at the Bernabeu on Tuesday should probably save themselves the ink. The Italian has done this before, and has the trophies to prove it. 

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Ancelotti has not blamed the officials, the ball boys, the fixture list or the state of anyone else's pitch for Real's recent slump. Even the jibe that he was too soft a coach was batted away in his pre-Athletic press conference: "This lenient hand has won three Champions Leagues," he noted, his eyebrow inviting further dissent. 

The result in San Mames can be attributed to three factors: Ernesto Valverde, Toni Kroos and the BBC. In that order. The Athletic coach, who like Unai Emery seems fated to never gain the recognition he deserves in Spain, outfoxed Ancelotti plain and simple. In his own words: "The plan was to stop their movement, sit a little further back and wait for our chance to get to their area. The key is to get to them, so they have to come back at you. That way it's not all one-way traffic."

Valverde's plan worked perfectly. Benat and Mikel Rico held the midfield, assisted by Andoni Iraola dropping back to form a blocking three, allowing Inaki Williams and Aritz Aduriz, free of defensive considerations, to harry Real's back line when it pushed up to compensate. Kroos, who had a bad game by his own standard, was overrun. The Germany international often shot his teammates a look that said: "What am I doing here if you can't hold on to the ball?"

But Kroos was poor largely because he has been playing for so long without rest: "I have never played more games in my life. I am starting to get tired. On top of that, in Spain there is no break in January, as there is in Germany. So you must keep going. I suppose I will get a rest at some point." That was at the end of November. 

Ancelotti is no fan of rotation: that much is clear. But how much does what he has at his disposal dictate his own unmovable position? Ancelotti's old club, PSG, had a bench for the match against Lens on Saturday consisting of Javier Pastore, Edinson Cavani and precocious 17-year-old Jean-Kevin Agustin as attacking options. Ancelotti had Jese and Javier Hernandez; both short of confidence and pitch time. An overhaul of the playing staff in the summer is inevitable. Until then, the Real manager can only use what's available. Kroos has played almost every minute of the season because Illarramendi has been mostly underwhelming and Sami Khedira mostly injured; and underwhelming when not.

The speed and pressure showcased by Inaki Williams and the Athletic attack proved difficult to counter for the exhausted Toni Kroos.

Injuries elsewhere have played a bigger part than either midfielder in Real's recent woes: Sergio Ramos is perhaps the side's most important player, not least for his leadership qualities. He is also a better bet than Pepe for countering an aerial threat, like the one from Aduriz that resulted in the lone Athletic goal. To boot, Ramos himself at the other end of the pitch is a dangerous presence to have set pieces. Luka Modric gives Ancelotti the balance he craves, and James Rodriguez would certainly have been handy to have on the bench in San Mames. 

It is a credit to Ancelotti that has not bemoaned the absences of Ramos, Modric and James. It is also wise: if performances -- and results -- do not improve when that trio are back in action, the Italian won't be pulled up for the age old managerial shot-in-the-foot statement: "Well, if I'd had all my players available..." The likelihood is that Real will improve with the return of Modric and Ramos. Rodriguez will also be welcomed back for his undoubted ability, although that is not expected to happen for a month or so. 

Of more immediate concern is the regression of the BBC in 2015: the front three are supposed to be a guarantee of a goal or two, whether the unit is functioning together or not. However, now every opposition manager knows that if Ancelotti's forward line is shut down, he has nothing left up his sleeve, and the numbers make for uncomfortable reading: in his last seven games Gareth Bale has one assist and zero goals; Karim Benzema hasn't found the back of the net or a teammate since the Elche game; Cristiano Ronaldo has failed to have a shot on target in four of his last eight La Liga outings since the 2-1 defeat at Mestalla, scoring just five in nine in 2015. In 14 league matches before the New Year, he hit 25. 

If goal difference is called into play at the end of the season, there is a lot of ground to make up: Barcelona are now plus-60 to Real's plus-51. As Ancelotti said after Saturday's result, "We have to be clearer in attack. The pass didn't come because we took too many touches and the striker wasn't able to lose his marker. We were too individualistic." 

There is a lot at stake at Camp Nou but as Ancelotti keeps pointing out, the season is far from over. Neither will it be decided on the 22nd. After the clasico, Real have to play Valencia and Sevilla before the final day, while Barcelona face the same two opponents and Espanyol at the Power8 Stadium in consecutive weeks. In the penultimate round of fixtures, the current leader plays Atletico in the Calderon. It has been a bad week for Real, but there will be a few twists and turns yet in the La Liga title race.

Rob Train is a freelance writer who lives in Madrid, covers Real Madrid for ESPN and contributes to a number of other publications. Twitter: @Cafc13Rob.

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